Signs of Change in the Arab World

The Iraqi elections were one sign of hopeful change in the Middle East. Another can be found in Lebanon, where people from across the sectarian divide are joining forces to demand an end to the Syrian occupation of their homeland. The recent murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, which was almost certainly an attempt by Syria to forestall the growth of a unified Lebanese opposition, has instead acted as a catalyst. As David Ignatius points out in Wednesday's Washington Post, "Beirut's Berlin Wall" is starting to crumble, and the impact will be felt well beyond Lebanon:

Brave words, in a country where dissent has often meant death. "It is the beginning of a new Arab revolution," argues Samir Franjieh, one of the organizers of the opposition. "It's the first time a whole Arab society is seeking change -- Christians and Muslims, men and women, rich and poor."Brave words, in a country where dissent has often meant death. "It is the beginning of a new Arab revolution," argues Samir Franjieh, one of the organizers of the opposition. "It's the first time a whole Arab society is seeking change -- Christians and Muslims, men and women, rich and poor."

The unlikely leader of this movement is longtime Lebanese politician Walid Jumblatt. Those who don't believe that the Iraqi elections made an impact in the Arab world should read the following:

Jumblatt dresses like an ex-hippie, in jeans and loafers, but he maintains the exquisite manners of a Lebanese aristocrat. Over the years, I've often heard him denouncing the United States and Israel, but these days, in the aftermath of Hariri's death, he's sounding almost like a neoconservative. He says he's determined to defy the Syrians until their troops leave Lebanon and the Lahoud government is replaced.

"It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," explains Jumblatt. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. "The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."

(emphasis added-DD)

In Sunday's New York Times, Tom Friedman also noted the development of this nascent Arab movement for democratic change, something that most realists only thought they would see "When Camels Fly". Sadly, he is probably correct in stating that this process will be far longer and bloodier than what occurred in Eastern Europe in 1989:

No one is more pleased than I am to see the demonstration of "people power" in Iraq, with millions of Iraqis defying the "you vote, you die" threat of the Baathists and jihadists. No one should take lightly the willingness of the opposition forces in Lebanon to stand up and point a finger at the Syrian regime and say "J'accuse!" for the murder of the opposition leader Rafik Hariri. No one should dismiss the Palestinian election, which featured a real choice of candidates, and a solid majority voting in favor of a decent, modernizing figure - Mahmoud Abbas. No one should ignore the willingness of some Egyptians to demand to run against President Hosni Mubarak when he seeks a fifth - unopposed - term. These are things you have not seen in the Arab world before. They are really, really unusual - like watching camels fly.

Something really is going on with the proverbial "Arab street." The automatic assumption that the "Arab street" will always rally to the local king or dictator - if that king or dictator just waves around some bogus threat or insult from "America," "Israel" or "the West" - is no longer valid. Yes, the Iraq invasion probably brought more anti-American terrorists to the surface. But it also certainly brought more pro-democracy advocates to the surface.

Call it the "Baghdad Spring."

But we have to be very sober about what is ahead. There will be no velvet revolutions in this part of the world. The walls of autocracy will not collapse with just one good push. As the head-chopping insurgents in Iraq, the suicide bombers in Saudi Arabia and the murderers of Mr. Hariri have all signaled: The old order in this part of the world will not go quietly into this good night. You put a flower in the barrel of their gun and they'll blow your hand and your head right off.

As Friedman notes, we are merely at the beginning of a long and painful journey. But it is a journey that must be made if we are to defeat the forces of hatred and fanaticism that produced 9/11. Only by giving the people of the Arab world the opportunity to create free societies based on hope instead of fear, will the conditions that spawned the jihadist movement be alleviated.