"The Terrorism to Come"

Noted historian and terrorism scholar Walter Laqueur has a sober and thought provoking new essay in the August/September 2004 issue of Policy Review:

The Terrorism to Come

Here's a brief excerpt:

It could well be that, as far as the recent past is concerned, the danger of terrorism has been overstated. In the two world wars, more people were sometimes killed and more material damage caused in a few hours than through all the terrorist attacks in a recent year. True, our societies have since become more vulnerable and also far more sensitive regarding the loss of life, but the real issue at stake is not the attacks of the past few years but the coming dangers. Megaterrorism has not yet arrived; even 9-11 was a stage in between old-fashioned terrorism and the shape of things to come: the use of weapons of mass destruction.

[...]

Today these have become real possibilities. For the first time in human history very small groups have, or will have, the potential to cause immense destruction. In a situation such as the present one there is always the danger of focusing entirely on the situation at hand — radical nationalist or religious groups with whom political solutions may be found. There is a danger of concentrating on Islamism and forgetting that the problem is a far wider one. Political solutions to deal with their grievances may sometimes be possible, but frequently they are not. Today’s terrorists, in their majority, are not diplomats eager to negotiate or to find compromises. And even if some of them would be satisfied with less than total victory and the annihilation of the enemy, there will always be a more radical group eager to continue the struggle.


Anyone suffering from complacency vis a vis the issue of terrorism should read this essay. In an age of WMD, the terrorist threat will be with us for a long time.


Update: Please read the thoughtful comment attached to this post by David March, here's an excerpt:

This is exactly what is at the root of the problem of WMD’s--- they don’t need to be huge. You don’t go looking for an airfield covered with sophisticated bombers, or a military compound with huge tanker trucks filled with poison. All that is needed is enough material to fit in a backpack, with a timer and a few ounces of C-4, and you have a device that will create a huge problem for any functioning urban center.

A Weapon of Mass Destruction does NOT need to BE Massive.